NBA Season Predictions

Whew… finally finished the mammoth NBA Season Previews for each team. 19,487 words worth of NBA goodness – it almost killed me Not quite, but you get the idea. For the past week I’ve been sick off work and it’s been a real effort to get them done – hell I haven’t even done my own writing over the same period. Still, got it done and that’s the main thing

Before we get back to the regular programming, my picks for the NBA award winners:

MVP: LeBron James – he’ll be utterly dominant this season and I expect him to lead the Cavs to second in the East. That should ensure he gets the trophy.

Runners up: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Deron Williams

 

Defensive Player of the Year:  Kevin Garnett – he won it last season and he should win it again. The Boston Celtics will have the best defence in the NBA once again.

Runners up: Ron Artest, Josh Smith, Greg Oden

 

Rookie of the Year: Greg Oden – he’ll struggle for the first couple of months to get used to the pace of the NBA game but sometime late in December he’s going to figure it out and be a dominant force, especially on the defensive end.

Runners up: Michael Beasley, Rudy Fernandez, Kevin Love

 

Sixth Man of the Year: Rudy Fernandez – the Spanish rookie shapes as the next coming of Manu Ginobili, a game changer off the bench and with Ginobili sidelined until mid December, Fernandez should shine.

Runners up: Manu Ginobili, Tony Allen, Leandro Barbosa

 

Coach of the Year: Jerry Sloan – it’s a travesty that Sloan has never won Coach of the Year. If the Utah Jazz are as good as I expect then he should get it this year.

Runners up: Rick Adelman, Gregg Popovich, Nate McMillan

 

Most Improved Player: LaMarcus Aldridge – probably the biggest beneficiary of a healthy Greg Oden is Aldridge who should benefit with a bit of open space around him to launch his slingy jumpshots.

Runners up: Devin Harris, Jordan Farmar, Randy Foye

 

Also my predictions for the season ahead:

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Detroit Pistons
4. Orlando Magic
5. Philadelphia 76ers
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Miami Heat
8. Chicago Bulls
9. Atlanta Hawks
10. New York Knicks
11. Milwaukee Bucks
12. Washington Wizards
13. Indiana Pacers
14. Charlotte Bobcats
15. New Jersey Nets

Western Conference

1. LA Lakers
2. New Orleans Hornets
3. Utah Jazz
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Houston Rockets
6. Portland Trailblazers
7. Phoenix Suns
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Denver Nuggets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. Golden State Warriors
12. LA Clippers
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Oklahoma City Thunder

Playoffs:

Round 1

(1) Boston Celtics defeat (8) Chicago Bulls in 4 games

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers defeat (7) Miami Heat in 5 games

(3) Detroit Pistons defeat (6) Toronto Raptors in 6 games

(5) Philadelphia 76ers defeat (4) Orlando Magic in 6 games

(1) LA Lakers defeat (8) Dallas Mavericks in 5 games

(2) New Orleans Hornets defeat (7) Phoenix Suns in 6 games

(3) Utah Jazz defeat (6) Portland Trail Blazers in 4 games

(4) San Antonio Spurs defeat (5) Houston Rockets in 7 games

Round 2

Boston Celtics defeat Philadelphia 76ers in 6 games

Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Detroit Pistons in 7 games

LA Lakers defeat San Antonio Spurs in 7 games

New Orleans Hornets defeat Utah Jazz in 7 games

Conference Finals

Boston Celtics defeat Cleveland Cavaliers in 7 games

New Orleans Hornets defeat LA Lakers in 6 games

NBA Finals

Boston Celtics defeat New Orleans Hornets in 5 games

Paul Pierce is awarded Finals MVP

 

And there’s my picks. Let’s see how they pan out

Memphis Grizzlies Season Preview

My NBA South West Division preview concludes with the Memphis Grizzlies:

Memphis Grizzlies

2007-08 Standings 22 – 60, 14^th Western Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 23 – 59, 5^th South West Division, 14^th Western Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Marc Gasol, Hakim Warrick, Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Mike Conley

Sixth Man:  Darko Milicic

Hope those shoulders are broad enough to carry the hopes of all the fans in Grizzlies land.

The South West Division has four teams with their eyes on the NBA championship. The Mempis Grizzlies are not one of them. However they did contribute mightily to one of the NBA finalists last year. Yep, without the midseason trade of Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies to the LA Lakers it is doubtful the Lakers would have made the Finals against the Boston Celtics. Pity then that Gasol was traded away for nothing, er I mean Javaris Crittenton, Kwame Brown, Aaron McKie, two draft picks and the rights to the other Gasol, Marc.

Brown and McKie are no longer with the team and Crittenton projects as the third (!) best point guard on the Grizzlies roster. The only positive aspect of the trade is Marc Gasol. Doubts remain whether Gasol will live up to his brother’s contribution, sure he played well in the Olympics but to me he seemed slow and ponderous. At least he’ll get lots of playing time, his backup is the poster child for underachievement and thwarted hopes, Darko Milicic. Milicic, for those few of you who don’t know, was selected second by the Detroit Pistons in 2003 ahead of Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. The other three are all All Stars, Milicic, not so much.

The Grizzlies do have a lot of young talent. Rudy Gay is probably the pick of the bunch. He is a rising star and there is an outside shot he could make the All Star game this year. He already averages over 20 ppg and should develop into the go to scorer for the Grizzlies in the coming seasons.

Gay will eventually be challenged as the star of the team by OJ Mayo. At least that’s the plan. Mayo was acquired in a draft day trade for Kevin Love and Mike Miller. Mayo has the potential to be an explosive scorer and he’ll get plenty of minutes and opportunity to prove himself on what projects to be a woeful roster. The loss of Miller will probably hurt the Grizzlies. He provided them with a reliable outside shooter and veteran leadership.

The point guard spot is taken by Mike Conley and the second year man will be looking to make the spot his. I feel he probably needs a better veteran backup than Kyle Lowry, Crittenton and/or Marko Jaric.

Coach:

Marc Iavaroni is the second year coach here. Unfortunately after the Grizzlies suffer a few multiple game losing streaks I’ll think he’ll be looking for a new job.

Bench:

When Darko Milicic projects as your sixth man you know your roster lacks depth. Veteran gunner Antoine Walker is here but its doubtful how much leadership he will provide the youngsters.

Star Player:

Rudy Gay is the Grizzlies star though OJ Mayo has the potential to usurp him eventually. At least the two of them will get plenty of shots to prove who is the alpha male here.

Team MVP 

Can Marc Gasol replicate what his brother produced in Memphis? If he can then the Grizzlies will win a few more games than most people expect but even with Pau around the Grizzlies were woeful.

Final Prognosis:

The Grizzlies best case scenario would be for the kiddies to develop some this season and they don’t win enough games to spoil their lottery chances. It’s going to be a looooong season in Memphis.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Dallas Mavericks Season Preview

My NBA South West Division preview continues with the Dallas Mavericks:

Dallas Mavericks

2007-08 Standings 51 – 31, 7^th Western Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 45 – 37, 4^th South West Division, 8^th Western Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Erick Dampier, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd

Sixth Man:  Jerry Stackhouse

If Jason Kidd can recapture his form from a few years ago then the Dallas Mavericks will remain a contender, otherwise look out below.

The Dallas Mavericks are a team on the slide but they remain seemingly unaware of it. In 2006 this team made the NBA Finals where they were defeated by the Miami Heat in six games. The following season they had one of the best regular seasons in history, finishing 67 – 15. Mavs superstar Dirk Nowitzki won the MVP but unfortunately they met the upstart Golden State Warriors in the first round and were bounced from the playoffs. In retrospect they perhaps should have retooled the team then. Instead they waited till midseason and traded point guard star of the future, Devin Harris to the New Jersey Nets for former Maverick Jason Kidd. The trade didn’t work and the team were bounced from the first round of the playoffs again. Instead of retooling the roster in the offseason, the Mavericks have kept mostly the same roster together, the only major change is new coach Rick Carlisle.

At least the Mavericks still have a superstar centrepiece in Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki remains a top 10 player in the league. He is arguably the best shooting big man ever and when his shot is falling is unstoppable. Unfortunately he goes missing at times – can you see Tim Duncan leading the San Antonio Spurs to the best record in the NBA and then allowing his team to be bounced in the first round? Perhaps it’s the toll of playing most offseasons for the German national team? Saying that though I still consider Nowitzki a franchise player, the question is whether he is surrounded by the right players.

The highest profile of Nowitzki’s sidekicks is Jason Kidd. Kidd is a future Hall of Famer. He should have won an MVP trophy for leading an inferior New Jersey Nets team to the Finals twice. Four years ago this would have been a great acquisition for the Mavericks. Unfortunately Kidd has worryingly shown his age over the past year or two and he is a shadow of his former self. The one positive however is that he has a massive expiring contract and if things aren’t going well for the Mavs then it wouldn’t surprise to see him moved before the trade deadline. 

Josh Howard is an All Star talent with an unfortunate knack of getting into All Star class trouble off the court.  Before the playoffs last year he admitted to using marijuana in the offseason then in September he disrespected the US national anthem and flag. Not a good look. Unfortunately such acts have damaged Howard’s trade value so it looks like the Mavericks are stuck with him. On the plus side he is an exceptional do-everything talent and if he can get his head right he ensures the Mavericks remain contenders.

The other notable talent on the Mavericks if Jason Terry. A slight player, Terry is a streak shooter capable of taking over a game every so often. He’s probably better coming off the bench but can perform the starter’s role admirably.

Coach:

Rick Carlisle has his work cut out for him. Somehow he must keep the Mavericks in contention (there is still a belief in Mavericks land that they are contenders) while getting them to forget the failures of the past couple of years. He has a talented group of assistants with him and it will be intriguing to see the schemes they create.

Bench:

On paper the Mavericks have a solid, well rounded bench. Jerry Stackhouse is the designated sixth man while they also have defensive stoppers in DeSagana Diop and Devean George with a dashing swingman in Gerald Green. However Stackhouse is past it and Green has proved woefully erratic, failing to stick with even poor teams such as the former Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Star Player:

Dirk Nowitzki is the star here. While his MVP is tarnished by the subsequent loss in the first round he is still a transcendent scorer.

Team MVP:

Jason Kidd is critical to the Dallas Mavericks hopes this season. If he can recapture the form of season’s past then the Mavericks will remain in contention. However this is doubtful. He was always a poor shooter but he compensated brilliantly in other ways. Can he do it again?

Final Prognosis:

Unfortunately the Dallas Mavericks are doomed to another season of disappointment. It wouldn’t surprise to see them hovering around the .500 mark midseason and then pulling off a blockbuster trade or two. I still expect them to make the playoffs but they’ll be bounced in the first round again.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Houston Rockets Season Preview

My NBA South West Division preview continues with the Houston Rockets:

Houston Rockets

2007-08 Standings 55 – 27, 5^th Western Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 53 – 29, 3^rd South West Division, 5^th Western Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Yao Ming, Luis Scola, Ron Artest, Tracy McGrady, Rafer Alston

Sixth Man:  Shane Battier

Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are the superstars on which the Houston Rockets are resting their hopes. Hopefully they'll stay healthy this season.

The South West Division is so tough and competitive that the Houston Rockets, my third ranked team, are the favourites in many people’s eyes to win the NBA this season. They possess a dominating centre in Yao Ming, a superstar backcourt player in Tracy McGrady and a lockdown defender in Ron Artest. They also possess a deep and varied supporting cast – Shane Battier, Steve Francis and Carl Landry would start for many other teams in the league, and a skilled and veteran coach.

So why don’t I rate them more? In a word: injuries. This team has suffered terrible injuries in the past few years to their two key players, Yao and McGrady. Last season the Houston Rockets rattled off a 22 game winning streak yet after 12 wins Yao went down with a season ending injury, effectively ending their championship hopes. This is a pattern that has repeated for the past few seasons as Yao has averaged 53 games each season during that stretch. McGrady has also suffered from numerous injuries in his time in Houston and has averaged 61 games a season over the same stretch. Odds are that one or both of the two stars will miss a lot of games this season.

As long as the Rockets stay fit they are title contenders. Even more so now that they have added the mercurial Ron Artest to their lineup. Artest is the most controversial figure in the NBA, as known for his antics as he is for his stellar defensive play. But hey it worked for Dennis Rodman and the Chicago Bulls. The Rockets will be hoping that that is Artest’s attitude as well.

The Rockets have enviable depth at most positions. Backing up Artest is Shane Battier, a superb defender in his own right who provides a cool head off the bench. Behind Tracy McGrady is former All Star Steve Francis and Brent Barry while the power forward position is loaded with starter Luis Scola backed up by one of the most efficient forwards in the league in Carl Landry. When Yao sits one of the two will slide across to centre and the Rockets will go small.

The most dicey position on the court for the Rockets is the point. Rafer Alston is the starter but he blows hot and cold. It wouldn’t surprise to see Brent Barry play some time there as the season goes on.

The Rockets have the stated aim of competing for the championship this season. Certainly if everyone is healthy no team would fancy facing the Rockets in the playoffs. With Ron Artest they have a fearsome defender who can lock down the opponents best player as well as providing valuable offence when needed.

Coach:

Rick Adelman is a vastly experienced coach entering his 18^th season in the league. He has over 800 wins and he will appreciate this is his chance to win his first championship.

Bench:

The Houston Rockets have one of the deeper benches in the league. In Shane Battier they have a legitimate contender for Sixth Man of the Year but they also possess other weapons in Brent Barry and Steve Francis. The Rockets depth carried them to a 22 game winning streak last season, lets see if they can carry them to a championship.

Star Player:

Yao Ming is the biggest (literally) player in the game. The pride of China, he has been an All Star every year he has been in the league. He would settle for missing out on the All Star game for his first title this year.

Team MVP:

How Ron Artest adjusts to his new team and role will be vital for how the Houston Rockets progress this season. Artest can dominate the game in different ways – let’s hope they’re all on the court this season.

Final Prognosis:

For me there are too many question marks surrounding the Rockets. If everyone is healthy for the whole year I firmly believe they will win the Western Conference. More likely one or more of their key guys will be injured and they’ll make the playoffs mid table. I still expect them to get out of the first round though.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

San Antonio Spurs Season Preview

My NBA South West Division preview continues with the San Antonio Spurs:

San Antonio Spurs

2007-08 Standings 56 – 26, 3^rd Western Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 54 – 28, 2^nd South West Division, 4^th Western Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Fabricio Oberto, Tim Duncan, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Tony Parker

Sixth Man:  Manu Ginobili

Without Manu Ginobili for the first part of the season, Tony Parker will have to take on more of the load offensively.

The San Antonio Spurs are the closest thing currently to a dynasty in the NBA. With Tim Duncan on board they’ve won multiple titles (1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007) and been quite simply the banner team for success. Sure there have been pretenders, Detroit in the Eastern Conference has been the other consistently excellent team during that period but they managed one title, the Spurs four.  The only thing that has eluded them has been back to back titles. If 2008/09 follows the pattern of previous seasons then the Spurs will be winning title number five next June.

The success of the Spurs hinges on two men: coach, Gregg Popovich and future Hall of Famer, Tim Duncan. Both men are intrinsically linked and are the only constants in all the Spurs titles. The first title in 1999 was won with David Robinson as the other half of the twin towers. Robinson retired after his second championship in 2003 and Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker became Duncan’s primary sidekicks.

Tim Duncan is one of the best players in the NBA. Seemingly the perfect big man, the only weakness in his game is his erratic free throw shooting. He dominates with consistency and class and is a true franchise player.

Duncan’s primary sidekicks remain Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Parker is one of the quickest players in the NBA and it’s still hard to believe he is still only 26. While perhaps not as good as Chris Paul and Deron Williams he is still capable of taking over a game down the stretch as he can get in to the paint at will.

Ginobili is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year and it says something about his character and the culture of the Spurs that Ginobili is willing to come off the bench for the good of the team. However there is a nagging sense that injuries and age is catching up with Ginobili. He will be missing from the lineup until at least mid December as he recovers from surgery on his ankle.

Bruce Bowen is the designated stopper of the Spurs. Typically Bowen guards the opposition’s best perimeter player, whether that is Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash or Paul Pierce. He does this through a variety of legitimate and dirty tricks. He also remains a capable outside shooter from the wings. Ime Udoka is his designated heir.

The remainder of the Spurs are a mix of veteran role players and intriguing talent. Michael Finley and Kurt Thomas are the kind of no nonsense veterans that the Spurs value – they seldom make mistakes and know how to play with the superstars on the team.

The San Antonio Spurs will again be dangerous this season. It’ll be interesting to see how they cope with the rising powers such as the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets.

Coach:

Gregg Popovich is arguably the best coach in basketball. Every year people whisper that maybe this is the year that they will finally slip back but every year they are contenders come the playoffs.

Bench:

Manu Ginobili better get healed quick as there is a worrying look to the Spurs bench. However it wouldn’t surprise me to see some of the newish players on the roster, the rookies such as George Hill develop into something. After all this is a franchise renown for finding gems at the tail end of the draft.

Star Player:

Tim Duncan remains one of the best players in the NBA and arguably is a top 10 player of all time. Everything the Spurs do revolves around him.

Team MVP:

Manu Ginobili is the key to the Spurs. He gives them an x factor that few teams can match. Arguably it was his banged up body in the playoffs that cost them a chance at defending their title. Let’s hope that the ankle surgery he underwent will have him right for the season. 

Final Prognosis:

The San Antonio Spurs will contend for the title again. Personally I’m hoping that they make it through the West to face the Celtics for the title. I would love to see Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan facing off for the title. I don’t think it’s going to happen though.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

New Orleans Hornets Season Preview

My NBA South West Division preview begins with the New Orleans Hornets:

New Orleans Hornets

2007-08 Standings 56 – 26, 2^nd Western Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 60 – 22, 1^st South West Division, 2^nd Western Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Tyson Chandler, David West, Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Chris Paul

Sixth Man:  James Posey

The Hornets big 3 of David West, Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul will be hoping for more success this season.

Last season was a great one for the New Orleans Hornets. They returned to New Orleans after a forced absence due to Hurricane Katrina and there were doubts that the team would stay long term. At first attendance at the Hornets home games was tepid but in March and April they picked up and the franchise registered a number of sell outs. The reason for the upswing in support? The outstanding play of the Hornets which resulted in them finishing the regular season in second place in the ultra tough Western Conference.

The Hornets are led by the outstanding point guard, Chris Paul. So good was Paul that he finished second in MVP voting behind Kobe Bryant. Paul is diminutive yet he is ultra quick and ultra skilled and often leaves opponents gasping at air. He is capable of taking over a game with his scoring and his passing and it is Paul who makes everyone else on this team competitive.

Paul is helped out by another All Star, power forward David West. West experienced a mostly healthy season and as a result averaged 20 ppg and just under 9 rpg. West possesses an outstanding shooting stroke and as such is a perfect complement for Chris Paul’s game.

Holding down the middle is Tyson Chandler. Chandler is incredibly limited offensively, relying on put backs off offensive rebounds and lobs from Paul to slam home. But offence is not why he’s in the team, he’s there to rebound and provide a defensive presence in the middle. Surprisingly for a player of his length and athletic ability he’s a poor shot blocker.

Peja Stojakovic is a shadow of his former All Star days with the Sacramento Kings but he remains an outstanding shooter and as such he is a useful third or fourth option.

The big off season pickup was the Boston Celtics glue guy James Posey. Posey is a big time player, a superb defender, a capable outside shooter and a player willing to take the big shots. The Hornets overpaid for Posey but they are looking at Posey putting them over the top, it’ll be interesting to see if the gamble pays off. 

The Hornets play in the toughest division in basketball. Of the five teams, four are legitimate title contenders. They proved themselves last year, this year it’s about making the Western Conference Finals at the very least.

Coach:

Byron Scott won the 2008 NBA Coach of the Year for his efforts coaching the Hornets last season. He seems perfectly suited to his Hornets team and it seems that he is set for a long stint with a club. However he experienced similar success with the New Jersey Nets before being fired so nothing is certain in basketball.

Bench:

Outside of new acquisition James Posey, the Hornets bench is terribly thin. If they suffer injuries to any of their big three, Paul, West and Chandler, then they will struggle. In an added bonus they feature the only current kiwi in the NBA, Sean Marks (hey, it’s important to me!)

Star Player:

Chris Paul is an all NBA player. He’s the best point guard in the game today, having overtaken Steve Nash and Jason Kidd and ahead of Deron Williams and Tony Parker. The Hornets will go as far as he can take them.

Team MVP:

The Hornets have a few candidates here. Superstar Chris Paul is at the heart of everything they do while James Posey was arguably one of the most valuable players on the championship Celtics. But the true team MVP of the Hornets has to be David West. If he can have another season like last year then the Hornets are legitimate contenders. However his career has been marred by injury and if that befalls him this year then the Hornets could slump.

Final Prognosis:

The New Orleans Hornets will once again be one of the best teams in the NBA and if everyone stays healthy they stand a good shot of unseating the LA Lakers to represent the West.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Charlotte Bobcats Season Preview

My NBA South East Division preview continues with the Charlotte Bobcats:

Charlotte Bobcats

2007-08 Standings 32 – 50, 12^th Eastern Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 25 – 57, 5^th South East Division, 14^th Eastern Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Nazr Mohammed, Emeka Okafor, Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, Raymond Felton

Sixth Man:  Adam Morrison

High flyer Gerald Wallace will be hoping to lead the Charlotte Bobcats to glory this upcoming season.

It’s about time that the Charlotte Bobcats started making some noise in the NBA. They’ve been in the league now for four years and the most wins they’ve accumulated were 33 two seasons ago. You can understand their first few years being poor as they had many of the dregs from other teams through the expansion draft, and they looked to accumulate cap room and young talent.  They have yet to even have an All Star selected. Four years in and Charlotte Bobcats seem no closer to a playoff spot.

This offseason they made an incredibly positive step in signing Larry Brown as coach. Typically his teams have done well within a season or two of the Hall Of Famer taking over, and the Bobcats will be hoping he has a similar effect in Charlotte. However his last stop was with the woeful New York Knicks and even Brown couldn’t work his magic there.

At least in Charlotte he does have some talent to work with, especially at the swingman positions. Gerald Wallace is one of the best two way players in the NBA. The small forward averages just under 20 ppg and is capable of defending the opposition’s best player. While it’s doubtful whether he will ever be an All Star he is still a valuable asset who would serve a championship squad well as the fourth option.

At the shooting guard slot the Bobcats play Jason Richardson, a high flyer with three point range on his shot. The Bobcats acquired him from the Golden State Warriors and the suggestion remains that he is better suited to the run and gun style of play that the Warriors prefer. Like Wallace he is a valuable piece but it’s doubtful whether he will ever be an All Star.  Pity then that he is paid All Star money.

Another player overpaid is Emeka Okafor. He recently signed a six year $72 million extension. He’s a serviceable big but not worth that kind of money. He’ll give you 11 rpg and about 2 bpg but for that kind of money you expect some offensive production and he’s woefully inadequate there. Averaging around 14ppg.

The point guard slots are manned by young, Raymond Felton, and rookie, DJ Augustin, players. Brown is especially demanding on point guards and it will be interesting to see how they cope with his over zealousness.

Coach:

Larry Brown is a Hall of Fame coach and that immediately makes him an upgrade over Sam Vincent, their previous coach. But does he still have it? After all he couldn’t work his magic with the Knicks and he has a relatively inexperienced team to work with.

Bench:

Adam Morrison will be looking to prove his doubters wrong and be the effective player off the bench that the Bobcats need. Unfortunately he missed all of last season due to an injury so it’ll be interesting to see how he comes on this season. The remainder of the bench is young with Matt Carroll being the most experienced with five seasons in the league. Will they be able to cope with the demanding Larry Brown?

Star Player:

Jason Richardson is the star of the Bobcats though a case could also be made for Gerald Wallace. Richardson will be expected to carry the load offensively. Hope his shoulders are broad enough.

Team MVP:

Now that he has his big contract Emeka Okafor really needs to show that he was worth it. If he can add 5 or so points to his average (a big ask) then the Bobcats will be a dangerous team.

Final Prognosis:

I don’t give the Bobcats much show this season. They’ll win their share of games but it won’t be enough to lift them from the bottom of the league. Their best bet would be getting a high draft pick and trying to get a genuine star.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Washington Wizards Season Preview

My NBA South East Division preview continues with the Washington Wizards:

Washington Wizards

2007-08 Standings 43 – 39, 5^th Eastern Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 35 – 47, 4^th South East Division, 12^th Eastern Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Etan Thomas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Antonio Daniels

Sixth Man:  Nick Young

With Gilbert Arenas out until next year, Caron Butler will need to once again carry the load for the Washington Wizards.

At the beginning of the offseason the Washington Wizards looked to have a good, playoff quality team. They had three All Stars: Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas, a centre in Brendan Haywood who was coming off a career year and in Eddie Jordan one of the better coaches in the league. But before the season even begins they have lost Haywood for at least six months (which almost definitely means the season) and Arenas until after Christmas. To say they have been struck hard by injury is an understatement.

At least they still have Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. Both are All Star calibre players albeit on differing slopes. Butler is an up and comer. Last season he averaged career highs in numerous categories including points, assists and steals. While part of that can be attributed to the absence for most of the season of Gilbert Arenas, Butler has proven to be a young stud for the Wizards. The big question is whether he can stay healthy considering he missed 24 games last year.

Jamison on the other hand is on the downward slope of his career, not that you can tell from his numbers. He proved to be the engine around which the Wizards run last season but after ten years in the league can he continue playing at such a high level.

Then of course there is Agent Zero Gilbert Arenas. Arenas is an explosive shoot first point guard with a larger than the game personality. The problem is he missed 69 games last season then returned for the playoffs against Cleveland but looked out of sorts. He signed a massive extension in July then had further surgery and will be out until probably the new year. When he is fit Arenas is capable of leading the league in scoring but is that what is best for the Wizards? After all he missed most of last season and the Wizards finished 5^th in the East.

The remainder of the roster has a journeyman quality about it, especially with the injury to Haywood. In Arenas’ absence Antonio Daniels is the point guard and he is a solid veteran. His backcourt partner will be DeShawn Stevenson although eventually that role will fall to Nick Young.

The front court behind Butler and Jamison feels fragile. Etan Thomas will be the centre, however he is better suited to be a backup big man. 

Coach:

Eddie Jordan will need to do the coaching job of his life to keep the Wizards competitive while they wait for Arenas to heal and then adjust to the lineup. If they suffer an injury to Butler or Jamison watch out.

Bench:

The Wizard’s bench is journeyman quality. Probably the best of the bunch is Nick Young and he will be expected to come in and provide a spark off the bench.

Star Player:

When he is healthy Gilbert Arenas is the undoubted star of the Washington Wizards. In his injury absence that role falls to Caron Butler.

Team MVP:

For how long can Antawn Jamison continue to produce at a high level? Sooner or later his age and the years he has spent in the league will tell and he will begin to slip. The Wizards are hoping it won’t be this year.

Final Prognosis: 

The Wizards will be ecstatic to match last year’s win total however I don’t see it. They have suffered injuries to two key players already and the season hasn’t even started. It’s going to be a painful year in Wizards land.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Atlanta Hawks Season Preview

My NBA South East Division preview begins with the Atlanta Hawks:

Atlanta Hawks

2007-08 Standings 37 – 45, 8^th Eastern Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 39 – 43, 3^nd South East Division, 9^th Eastern Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Al Horford, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby

Sixth Man:  Acie Law

The Atlanta Hawks are hoping that high flyer Josh Smith develops consistency to go with his already stellar talents.

The Atlanta Hawks are a hard team to get a handle on. They scraped into the playoffs last season with a 37 – 45 record then proceeded to take the Boston Celtics, the eventual champions to seven games. While that series was probably down as much to the Celtics failing to dispose of a team they didn’t take seriously until it mattered, it did show what they were capable of. However the 37 win record reveals that they just weren’t consistent enough.

At the end of last season they looked like a team on the rise, a Portland Trail Blazers for the Eastern Conference. Then of course they suffered one of the most high profile defections this offseason, when they lost sixth man extraordinaire Josh Childress to Europe. Childress’ loss to me revealed that all is not well in Hawks land. For years the Hawks have been crippled by ownership gripes and there are rumours that the negotiations with Childress were antagonistic leading him to pursue the Europe option. While I ultimately think Childress bolting is more about the money and the opportunity to get some life experience it still doesn’t convince me that the Hawks have turned the corner.

Despite my reservations they do have a number of pieces. With Mike Bibby at the point and Joe Johnson at shooting guard the Hawks have one of the best backcourts in the NBA. Both are All Star level talents and both are capable of taking and making the big shots. They give experience and guidance to the youngsters around them.

Josh Smith is a stellar talent, one of the best young players in the NBA. He’s an explosive scorer and an awesome shot blocker, ranking second in the NBA. The one thing he needs is consistency, if he achieves that he’ll be an All Star.

At the other forward position is Marvin Williams. He is very young still, barely 22 while already entering his fourth season. He’s probably better suited to being a wingman at this stage of his career.

Pressed into centre duty is Al Horford. At times last year he was an absolute monster inside but like a lot of young players he needs to play dynamic ball for every minute of every game. Ultimately I think Horford will make a better power forward. Horford will be backed up by Zaza Pachulia. Pachulia has a hard nosed streak that I like, going nose to nose with Kevin Garnett during the playoffs last year.

Coach:

Mike Woodson is the Atlanta Hawks and he proved himself a solid performer last season in getting the young Hawks to challenge the mighty Celtics for seven games. The challenge for him will be to get the Hawks to play that way away from home.

Bench:

Acie Law will be looking to prove that so so rookie season was an aberration. He’ll be backing up Bibby so he has a good role model to follow. The remainder of the Hawks bench is mostly young, inexperienced players. Josh Childress will be missed.

Star Player:

Joe Johnson is the star, an All Star who left the Phoenix Suns to be the leader of his own team. Eventually Josh Smith will be the star in Atlanta but for now Johnson is the alpha player, the one who’ll take all the big shots.

Team MVP:

Can Al Horford develop into a consistent dominant interior player? If he can the Hawks will be much better than most people expect.

Final Prognosis: 

While I think the Hawks will be better this season the Eastern Conference has some better teams in it, most notably division rival the Miami Heat. I expect the Hawks to come close to a playoff slot but just miss out.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.

Miami Heat Season Preview

My NBA South East Division preview begins with the Miami Heat:

Miami Heat

2007-08 Standings 15 – 67, 15^th Eastern Conference

2008-09 Predicted Record 42 – 40, 2^nd South East Division, 7^th Eastern Conference

Projected Starting Five:  Mark Blount, Michael Beasley, Shawn Marion, Dwayne Wade, Marcus Banks

Sixth Man:  Udonis Haslem

A healthy Dwayne Wade is crucial for the Miami Heat in the upcoming season.

Last year the Miami Heat were shockingly bad. They scraped their way to 15 wins and it seemed lucky that they made that many. Yet it was only two years ago that they won the NBA title. Their fall is a reminder that a team built to win a title can just as easily slide into mediocrity with the rapid aging of key players and a few nasty injuries.

However with a terrible season comes a high draft pick and the Heat scored big with the second pick in the draft. They selected Michael Beasley, a supremely gifted young forward with a great inside outside game and a winning attitude. He has displayed immaturity at times and it will be interesting to see how team boss, Pat Riley, copes with Beasley’s quirks.

The Heat are also blessed with one of the best players in the NBA. When he is healthy Dwayne Wade is nigh on unstoppable. The only thing he lacks is a reliable three point shot. However the healthy part is what is crucial. Wade has only played 51 games in each of the last two seasons and he played hurt in many of the games he did play in. if he is healthy for a full season then the Heat will rebound back up the rankings.

The third player in Miami’s big three is Shawn Marion. Marion is a multi skilled All Star capable of playing both forward positions. He is a highly talented defender and a capable outside shooter, albeit with the ugliest stroke in the NBA. Marion was acquired midseason by the Heat along with Marcus Banks in exchange for Shaquille O’Neal. The trade freed the Heat of Shaq’s humongous contract and they get to see whether Marion is worth offering an extension to. His contract expires at the end of this season and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Marion traded before the deadline. A good fit might be with the LA Lakers with the Heat getting back former player Lamar Odom.

Udonis Haslem is the pick of the remaining players. He is a capable forward who plays his best basketball as a supporting player beside a dominant front court player.

The remainder of the players are NBA journeymen who the Heat will be hoping can play above themselves.

The Heat did make one intriguing offseason signing. They signed Shaun Livingston, a player who suffered a terrible injury a couple of years ago. Before the injury he was one of the more intriguing young players. He seemingly possessed limitless potential and it will be interesting to see how he comes back from his injury layoff. If he can recapture some of his former quickness and skills the Heat will be extremely dangerous.   

Coach:

The Miami Heat coach is first year Head Coach Erik Spoelstra. He has been with the Heat organisation for 14 years so the players should be used to him. Being Head Coach is different to other roles however and how he copes will be key to the Heat.

Bench:

The Heat bench has a number of promising youngsters on it. Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright and Mario Chalmers all have skill and ability but can they take their games to the next level?

Star Player:

When fit Dwayne Wade is a top 5 talent in the NBA. He is explosive offensively, basing his game on getting to the hoop and subsequently to the line. He is also a capable defender, able to play lockdown defence from time to time. He already has one title with the Heat. Will he get more?

Team MVP:

How quickly Michael Beasley adjusts to the NBA will be crucial for the Heat’s chances. He has the talent but can he cope with the constant abuse his body will take from NBA defenders?

Final Prognosis:

The Miami Heat should qualify for the playoffs this season. With Wade, Marion and Beasley they have one of the best trios in the NBA. The key will be keeping them healthy and getting regular production from the remainder of the team.

 

You can find an index of past Previews here.